Economy Research & Development (LQ, DLQ Shift-Share & Kalssen Tipology )

GROWTH PATTERNS AND THE PROJECTION OF ECONOMIC POTENCY IN MALUKU CENTRAL DISTRICT 

(Period of The Year 2016-2020) 

By: Riller Katipana 

 ABSTRACT 

This study aims to analyze the growth patterns and economic potential that existed in Central Maluku District during the period of 2016-2020. 

    Where the data used in this study is the data GDRP period of 2011-2015 as a baseline or reference in predicting the pattern of growth and economic potential in the future that is in 2016-2020 by looking at regional comparison during the period. 

    The results of this study, based on Shift-Share analysis obtained the rate of economic growth experienced an increase in GDRP growth, growth of Central Maluku District for the period 2011 - 2015 of Rp. 76.575.899.000, with impacts on several basic sectors namely Agriculture, Forestry & Fishery sector of Rp. 194.158.000. Manufacturing sector Rp. 108,649,000. Wholesale & Retail Trade: Car & Motorcycle Repair of Rp. 152.986.000. and Government Administration, Defense & Social Security Sector at Rp. 184.037.000. Meanwhile, based on the basic sector, LQ obtained basic sector analysis in the period of 2011 - 2015, there are 6 basic sectors and 11 non-base sectors with an average multiplier effect of 1.23%. Then for the results of DLQ can be obtained 4 sectors that will remain the base sector in the future, 2 sectors that changed from the base sector to non-base sector and 11 sectors that changed from the non-base sector into the base sector in the future. While for the Projection result by using Klassen Tipology, it is possible that the change of economic growth and income per-capita in Central Maluku Regency with the category of area that is in the relatively lagging region category that existed in the year 2011-2015 changed to the position of the rapidly growing area category in the year 2016- 2020.

Keywords: Growth Pattern, Projection of Economic Potential, LQ, Shift-Share, DLQ, Typology Klassen.

1. INTRODUCTION

The determination of economic potential becomes important as the basis of regional development planning in accordance with the current era of regional autonomy, where the regions have the opportunity and authority to make policies in accordance with the regional potential to accelerate regional economic development for the improvement of people's prosperity. The leading sector is a sector whose existence at this time has played a big role to the economic development of a region, because it has advantages. Furthermore, this factor develops further through investment activities and become the foundation of economic activity. This is based on how big the role of the sector is in the regional economy.

 Central Maluku regency is one of the districts in Maluku Province that has a leading sector in several sectors, which in the past few years has contributed substantially to economic growth at the provincial and district levels such as agriculture, Manufacturing and various other sectors contained in the area. So if viewed in the economic development of the development of the existing sectors, it should be focused attention to the decision-making policies undertaken by local governments in spurring and increasing economic growth of each sector that exists. Therefore, in this research can make the formulation of the problem that is.What are the economic potential during the Period 2011-2015 and how the development of growth patterns and economic potential in Central Maluku District during the period 2016-2020.

2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

1. The Theory of Economic Basis

The theory of economic base based his view that the economic growth rate of a region is determined by the large increase in exports from the region. Economic activities are grouped on basis activities and non-basis activities. Activity base is all activities both product producers and service providers who bring in money from outside the region. Employment and income in the base sector is an endogenous demand function (independent of internal strength / local demand). While the non-base activity is to meet local consumption needs, hence the demand of this sector is strongly influenced by the level of local income increase. Thus the sector is tied to local economic conditions and can not expand beyond regional economic growth. On the basis of the above assumption, the only sector that can boost the region's economy beyond natural growth is the base sector. Therefore, base analysis is very useful for studying and projecting regional economic growth. Tarigan, (2004).

2. Fast Track Growth Theory

Fast Track Growth Theory (FTGT) or turnpike was introduced by Samuelson (1986). In essence, this theory emphasizes that every region needs to know which sectors or commodities have great potential and can be developed quickly, both because of the natural potential and because the sector has comparative adventage to be developed. That is, with the same capital needs the sector can provide greater added value, can produce in a relatively short time and the contribution to the economy is also rapidly large. Gross Regional Domestic Product is one of the macro economic indicators that play a role in making policy planning in development by determining the direction of development and evaluating the development results of the area.

3. Measures of Regional Economic Growth

Measures on economic linkages basically illustrate the relationship between the regional economy and the surrounding environment. Shift-share analysis is a very useful technique in analyzing changes in regional economic structure compared to the national economy. This analysis provides data on the performance of the economy in 3 related fields to each other namely:

1. Regional economic growth is measured by analyzing changes in aggregate sectoral work as compared to the changes in the same sector of the economy as a reference.

2. Proportional shifts measure relative change, growth or decline, in regions compared with larger economies made reference. This measurement allows us to know whether the regional economy is concentrated in industries faster than the reference economy.

3. Differential shifts help us in determining how far the competitiveness of local (local) industry with the reference economy. Therefore, if the differential shift of an industry is positive, then the industry is superior to its competitiveness rather than the same industry in the reference economy. Lincolin Arsyad, (2010)

3. METHODELOGY

In this research is used data analysis technique that is Location Quotient Analysis (LQ), Dynamic Location Quotient (DLQ), Shift-Share for Base sector determination by looking at comparative advantage, while for projection of growth pattern and economic potency in using Trend Least Squre with moving average method and Tipology Klassen in forecasting growth pattern and economic potency in Central Maluku Regency during period 2016-2020.

4. RESULT AND DISCUSSION

In this research based on calculation result by using method of analysis of base sector and projection of growth pattern and economic potency in Regency of Central Maluku, hence can be explained as follows:

1. Shift-Share Analysis

Table. 1

Growth Rate

GDRP of Central Maluku District 2011-2015

(In million rupiah)

Num	Sector	SHIFT-SHARE
Code		(Gij)
1	Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries	194.158
2	Mining & Quarrying	6.941
3	Manufacturing	108.649
4	Electricity & Gas	1.035
5	Water Supply, Waste Management, Waste & Recycling	1.457
6	Construction	80.169
7	Wholesale & Retail Trade: Car & Motorcycle Repair	152.986
8	Transportation & Warehousing	32.118
9	Accommodation And Drinking	12.188
10	Information And Communication	19.030
11	Financial Services and Insurance	33.620
12	Real Estate	2.301
13	Company Services	8.816
14	Public Administration of Government, Defense and Social Security	184.037
15	Health Services and Social Activities	89.542
16	Educational Services	8.061
17	Other Service	10.557
	Total	76.575.899

(Source: Processed data results 2017)

In the table. 1 based on the calculation of shift-share analysis for the growth rate can be explained if there is an increase in the change of GRDP growth of Central Maluku District for the period of 2011 - 2015 of Rp. 76,575,899,000, it will have an impact on some basic sectors namely Agriculture, Forestry & Fishery sector of Rp. 194.158.000. Manufacturing sector Rp. 108,649,000. Wholesale & Retail Trade: Car & Motorcycle Repair of Rp. 152,986,000. and Government Administration, Defense & Social Security Sector at Rp. 184,037,000.

Table. 2

Growth Influence

GRDP of Maluku Province Against the Economy

Central Maluku District

2011-2015

(In million rupiah)

Num	Sector	National Share
Code		(Nij)
1	Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries	266.666
2	Mining & Quarrying	5.702
3	Manufacturing	128.455
4	Electricity & Gas	534
5	Water Supply, Waste Management, Waste & Recycling	2.448
6	Construction	54.478
7	Wholesale & Retail Trade: Car & Motorcycle Repair	137.396
8	Transportation & Warehousing	28.072
9	Accommodation And Drinking	12.665
10	Information And Communication	13.491
11	Financial Services and Insurance	22.323
12	Real Estate	2.893
13	Company Services	14.667
14	Public Administration of Government, Defense and Social Security	176.323
15	Health Services and Social Activities	96.208
16	Educational Services	13.399
17	Other Service	20.962
	Total	76.513.054

(Source: Processed data results 2017)

In the table. 2 explains that the average influence of GDP growth of Maluku Province is Rp. 2,222,097,614,000 or an increase of 29.04% during the period 2011-2015 to the economic growth of Central Maluku district of Rp. 76,513,054,000 with impact on base sector that is on agricultural sector equal to Rp. 266,666,000. the Manufacturing sector is Rp. 128.455.000., Wholesale & Retail Trade: Car & Motorcycle Repair sector of Rp. 137,396,000. and government administration, defense and social security sectors amounted to Rp.176.323.000.

Table. 3

The Influence of Industry Mix Against the Economy

Central Maluku District

2011-2015

(In million rupiah)

Num	Sektor	Proportional Shift
Code		(Mij)
1	Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries	-78.801
2	Mining & Quarrying	-600
3	Manufacturing	-3.764
4	Electricity & Gas	500
5	Water Supply, Waste Management, Waste & Recycling	-1.116
6	Construction	9.083
7	Wholesale & Retail Trade: Car & Motorcycle Repair	23.993
8	Transportation & Warehousing	1.923
9	Accommodation And Drinking	2.544
10	Information And Communication	5.527
11	Financial Services and Insurance	8.077
12	Real Estate	-951
13	Company Services	-2.885
14	Public Administration of Government, Defense and Social Security	34.210
15	Health Services and Social Activities	-930
16	Educational Services	-6.148
17	Other Service	-11.266
	Total	93.252

(Source: Processed data results 2017)

Table. 3 explains that the influence of industry mix on the economy of Central Maluku Regency is Rp. 93,252,000 with positive sector growth in allowance from the Wholesale & Retail Trade: Car & Motorcycle Repair Sector of Rp. 23,993,000 and Government Administration, Defense & Social Security sector of Rp. 34.21 million during the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector experienced growth of the industry mix negatively and slowly with a deficiency of Rp. 78,801,000 during the period 2011-2015 in Central Maluku District.

Table. 4

The Influence Of Competitive Advantage To The Economy

Central Maluku District

2011-2015

(In million rupiah)

Num	Sector	Differential Shift
Code		(Cij)
1	Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries	6.292,27
2	Mining & Quarrying	1.839,33
3	Manufacturing	-16.041,59
4	Electricity & Gas	1,35
5	Water Supply, Waste Management, Waste & Recycling	125,96
6	Construction	16.608,30
7	Wholesale & Retail Trade: Car & Motorcycle Repair	-8.402,98
8	Transportation & Warehousing	2.124,16
9	Accommodation And Drinking	-3.020,36
10	Information And Communication	12,53
11	Financial Services and Insurance	3.220,05
12	Real Estate	358,67
13	Company Services	-2.964,82
14	Public Administration of Government, Defense and Social Security	-26.495,65
15	Health Services and Social Activities	-5.735,50
16	Educational Services	809,76
17	Other Service	861,48
	Total	-30.407,04

(Source: Processed data results 2017)

Table. 4 explains to the effect of competitive advantage to economics of Central Maluku Regency as a whole is negative and does not have competitiveness in which the GDP of the District has a deficiency of Rp 30,407,040 this in because some of the basic sector also decreased drastically with the shortage of GDRP that is in the Manufacturing sector of Rp. 16,041,590, then government administration, defense & social security sector decreased by Rp.26.496.650. although supported by a number of other sectors that have positive competitiveness such as Construction, Agriculture and Others sectors but have not been able to bring the overall impact on competitive advantage in Central Maluku District during the period 2011-2015.

2. Base Sector Analysis

Num	Sector	LQ	DLQ	Projection
Code		Average	Average	2016-2020
1	Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries	1,06	1,05	Fixed Base Sector
2	Mining & Quarrying	0,18	1,22	Non-Base Sector to Base
3	Manufacturing	2,38	0,97	Base Sector to Non Base
4	Electricity & Gas	0,65	1,05	Non-Base Sector to Base
5	Water Supply, Waste Management, Waste & Recycling	0,47	1,07	Non-Base Sector to Base
6	Construction	0,85	1,19	Non-Base Sector to Base
7	Wholesale & Retail Trade: Car & Motorcycle Repair	1,00	1,01	Non-Base Sector to Base
8	Transportation & Warehousing	0,53	1,08	Non-Base Sector to Base
9	Accommodation And Drinking	0,70	0,93	Fixed Non-Base Sector
10	Information And Communication	0,37	1,04	Non-Base Sector to Base
11	Financial Services and Insurance	1,52	1,11	Fixed Base Sector
12	Real Estate	1,28	1,11	Fixed Base Sector
13	Company Services	0,76	0,92	Fixed Non-Base Sector
14	Public Administration of Government, Defense and Social Security	1,10	0,97	Base Sector to Non Base
15	Health Services and Social Activities	0,58	1,01	Non-Base Sector to Base
16	Educational Services	1,78	1,07	Fixed Base Sector
17	Other Service	0,92	1,06	Non-Base Sector to Base

(Source: Processed data results 2017)

Based on the results of the DLQ Analysis can be from 6 base sectors in the period 2011-2015. Four (4) sectors remain in the position of base in the year 2016 -2020 in the region of Central Maluku Regency consisting of Agriculture, Forestry & Fishery Sector, Financial & Insurance Services Sector, Real Estate Sector, and Education Service Sector. This indicates that these 4 sectors have a huge contribution to the growth of the regional economy. Then for the change of the base sector into non-base sector consists of 2 namely Industrial Sector & Processing as well as Government Administration Sector, Defense & Social Security. This means that the two sectors will have very little contribution and no competitiveness for the regional economy. While for Non-Base Sector Changes into Base Sector consists of 11 Sectors, namely Mining & Quarrying Sector, Electricity & Gas Sector, Construction Sector,Wholesale & Retail Trade: Car & Motorcycle Repair , Transport & Warehouse Sector, Information & Communication Sector, Health & and Other Service Sectors. This proves that the multiplier effects generated from the 6 basic sectors during the period 2011-2015 had a huge impact and spurred the non-base sectors to become the base sector in the next period in the region of Central Maluku Regency.

Table. 6

Sectoral Tipology Projection

In Central Maluku District

2016-2020

Average Sectoral Growth Rate (r)	Average Sector Contribution to GDRP (Y)
	Y sector > Y GDRP	Y sector < Y GDRP
	QUADRANT I	QUADRANT II
r sector > = r GDRP	FORWARD SECTOR & FAST GROWTH	FORWARD SECTOR & SLOW GROWTH
	1, Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries
	2. Mining & Quarriying
	3. Electricity & Gas
	4.Water Procurement, Waste Management, Waste & Recycling
	5.Construction
	6.Transportation & Warehousing
	7. Information and Communication
	8. Financial Services and Insurance
	9. Real Estate
	10. Education
	11. Other Services
r sector < r GDRP	QUADRANT III	QUADRANT IV
	POTENTIAL SECTOR	BACKWARD SECTOR
	1. Wholesale & Retail Trade: Car & Motorcycle Repair	1. Manufacturing
	2. Public Administration of Government, Defense and Social Security	2. Accommodation And Drinking
		3.Commercial Services
		4Health and Social Activity

(Source: Processed data results 2017)

Table. 6 explains that Sectoral Tipology Classification is 11 Sector with growth ratio category is Sector Forward and Growing Fast, 2 sectors are in the category of Potential Sector and 4 Sectors are in Backward sector category in Central Maluku regency.

3. REGIONAL COMPARISON

The regional comparison in this study is to look at the position of Central Maluku District at the level in Maluku Province, where the comparison is seen from the average per capita income level and the average rate of economic growth that is projected using Trend Least Square analysis with moving average method for period 2016-2020, as for the projection results as follows:

(Source: Processed data results 2017)

From the picture above can be explained that based on the projected average per capita income level and the average growth rate of economic growth for the district level of Rp. 11.401.826 with average economic growth rate of 2.94% and for the Province of Rp. 13,581,475. with an economic growth rate of 2.87%. this proves that in accordance with the calculation that with the pattern of development in the rapidly growing base sector has an impact on the regional economy in Central Maluku Regency during the period 2015-2016.

Table. 7

Klassen Tipology

Central Maluku District

Economy Growth (r)	Per-Capita Income (Y)
	Yi Dis > Y Prov	Yi Dis < Y Prov
ri Dis > r prov	Fast Forward & Fast Growing Area	Rapid Developed Areas
	( QUADRANT I )	( QUADRANT II )
		Position District. Central Maluku 2016-2020
ri < r prov	Depressed & Forward Area	Relative Disadvantaged Areas
	( QUADRAN III )	( QUADRAN IV )
		Position District. Central Maluku 2011-2015

 (Source: Processed data results 2017)

Based on the table of typology klassen can be seen that the position of Central Maluku Regency is in the category of relatively underdeveloped region during the period 2011-2015, but based on the projection of Central Maluku Regency is in fast growing region during the period 2016-2020. So by looking at the government's performance in 2011-2015 which is based on the calculation of the government's average performance of 33% needs to be maximally enhanced by policy making for the turn-pike of Samuelson (1986). Where governments should focus on developing sectors that have a comparative advantage by looking at sectors that have a very rapid sector growth ratio. This means that the local government needs to allocate the local revenue for the development of infrastructure to support the existing sectors in the region of Central Maluku district. Where if the local revenue is allocated to the 6 existing base sectors then these sectors will provide a multiplier effect for regional economic growth. in addition, the government also needs to pay attention to improve the existing Human Resources, given based on data in 2011-2015 the condition of HDI of Maluku is growing slowly, so the level of specialization in every sector found in Central Maluku is very limited. So it can lead to the development of slow economic growth. Therefore, the government needs to invest in sectors related to the development of existing human resources such as health services sector & social activities as well as education and other services sector.

5. CONCLUSION

Based on the results of the research, the conclusions can be made are:
1. Based on the analysis of the basic sector in the period of 2011 - 2015, there are 6 basic sectors and 11 non-base sectors with an average multiplier effect of 1.23% in the Region of Central Maluku District
2. Based on the results of the DLQ Analysis in the 4 sectors that will remain the base sector in the future, 2 sectors are changing from the base sector to non-base sector and 11 sectors are changing from the non-base sector to the base sector in the future in the region Central Maluku District.
3. Results The projection analysis in terms of changes in economic growth and per capita income in Central Maluku District with the category of regions that are in the category of relatively underdeveloped regions in 2011-2015 changed in the position of the rapidly developing regions categories in 2016-2020.



REFERENCE

1. Arsyad, Lincolin. 2010. Economic Development, UPP STIM YKPN, Yogyakarta.
2. BPS, 2016. Central Maluku District In Figures, Central Bureau of Statistics of Central Maluku District, 2016
3. Tarigan, 2004. Regional Economics Theory and Applications. Jakarta: Earth Literacy